BMG’s exclusive Westminster voting intention poll for the Independent shows the Conservatives with a narrow lead over Labour.

Commenting on the polling data, Andrew Price, pollster at BMG, said:

With more than half of eligible Britons now having received their first vaccine, there is now widespread belief that the Government is making a success of the Covid-19 vaccine rollout, with as many as four in five saying the process has gone well.

And whilst the vaccination programme is the stand-out success, half of Britons also feel that Covid-19 testing has gone well, compared to just 1 in 4 who feel testing has gone badly. More are also positive about the government’s handling of the economic response to the pandemic than are negative, meaning it is just the Government’s handling of schools and foreign travel that are obvious areas of perceived weakness.

That being said, despite the success of the vaccine, the public is split on whether they trust key Conservative politicians to effectively handle the pandemic. Some 38% feel they trust Prime Minster Boris Johnson compared to 41% who do not. Figures are bleaker for Matt Hancock, with 29% trusting the Health Secretary compared to 39% who distrust his ability to deal with the pandemic.

A potential vaccine ‘bounce’ does not appear to be leading to major improvements in trust for the Conservative party to handle the pandemic or the Prime Minister’s satisfaction ratings. Indeed, the Tories find themselves with a slim lead over Labour in our latest Westminster voting intention results, despite the success of the vaccine.

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by opinion polls.

An article by the Independent about these figures can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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