BMG’s exclusive Westminster voting intention poll for the Independent continues to show the Conservatives with a narrow lead over Labour.

Commenting on the polling data, Andrew Price, pollster at BMG, said:

The past few weeks have been turbulent for the Prime Minister – publicly falling out with his former Chief Advisor, Dominic Cummings, as well as facing questions over the financing of renovations to his flat, now resulting in an investigation by the Electoral Commission.

Despite the growing pressure mounting on Boris Johnson, our most recent polling suggests that it is not yet negatively impacting his satisfaction ratings or the Conservative’s share of vote.  The Conservative vote share remains unchanged from March and satisfaction with his leadership is actually higher. 

Whilst Boris Johnson may be able to sleep soundly at night, less can be said of Sir Keir Starmer.  He’s seeing his net satisfaction dropping and just 1 in 4 (24%) say they would prefer him to be Prime Minister – much lower than the 2 in 5 who favour the current Prime Minister. 

The great unknown in this however is what the Conservatives could have achieved.  With the vaccination campaign continuing to be successful, lockdown easing and the UK not seeing the same Covid spikes as other countries, they were probably hoping for a stronger growth in their share of vote than we are seeing.

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by opinion polls.

An article by the Independent about these figures can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or
0121 333 6006

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