BMG’s most recent polling for the Independent shows that the country continues to be divided when it comes to their preferred Brexit outcome, with the public also evenly split on whether MPs should be given a decisive vote on the outcome of Brexit. There is, however, more consensus around the prospect of a breakthrough in the negotiations, with our polling showing that there is little confidence in the Government securing a new Brexit deal before 31st October.
BMG’s previous polling for the Independent found that the public was divided when it came to preferred preferences for the outcome of Brexit. This month, between 7th – 12th August 2019, BMG asked 1515 GB adults aged 18+ a series of questions regarding Brexit, including two questions also fielded in July. This month’s polling shows that our conclusions reached last month are largely unchanged, with very few statistically significant shifts in attitudes and preferences.
No deal is still the most popular option but is not preferred by a majority
When asked what they think the UK should do in the event Boris Johnson’s government is unable to negotiate a new deal, leaving the EU without a deal was the most popular answer, chosen by 34% of respondents. Revoking the UK’s notice of withdrawal and remain in the EU (22%) and holding a second in-out referendum (20%) were each chosen by around a fifth of respondents. Seeking an extension to negotiations to try and reach a new deal (7%) and leaving the EU with Theresa May’s deal (6%) were the least popular options. Another 11% said they did not know. All changes from July to August relatively small, usually within the margins of error (despite slight change in question wording).
However, no deal appears to lose to remaining in the EU if put to a second referendum
Last month, BMG asked respondents what way the would vote in a series of hypothetical referendums. The findings showed that a referendum with the options of leaving with no deal or revoking article 50 and remaining in the EU had the fewest respondents saying they would not vote, suggesting a higher degree of “legitimacy” than some of the alternative scenarios. Consequently, BMG asked this question again to track possible shifts in sentiment.
Revoking the UK’s notice of withdrawal and remaining in the EU is still the most popular choice, selected by 45% of respondents. Another 36% said they would vote to leave the EU without a deal whilst 11% said they would not vote and 8% said they do not now.
All changes from July to August and within the margins of error.
Expectations of a new deal before 31st October are low
Respondents were asked if they think Boris Johnson’s Government will be able to secure a new Brexit deal with the EU before 31st October. Just under two thirds (58%) do not think the Government will be able to secure a new deal whereas nearly one fifth (19%) do think they will. Close to a quarter (23%) say that they do not know.
Belief that Boris Johnson’s Government can secure a new deal is also low amongst respondents who would vote Conservative in a general election or voted to leave during the EU referendum. Close to three in ten (31%) Leave voters think that the Government will secure a new deal before the 31st October, compared to 44% who do not. Similarly, 34% of those who would vote Conservative in a general election think that the Government will get a new deal, with 41% of the opposite view.
Public is split about giving MPs a final say
Finally, respondents were asked if they think that MPs should be given a vote on the final outcome of Brexit, regardless of whether the government can negotiate a new deal before 31st October. The country is split, with 42% saying that MPs should be given the vote and 39% saying they should not. Another 18% say they do not know.
As with many polling questions about Brexit, the way respondents voted in the 2016 EU referendum is key to one’s outlook. In this instance, two-thirds of Remain voters think that MPs should be given a final vote, as do two-thirds of Leave voters who think that MP’s should not be given a final vote (both 68%).
An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
0121 333 6006
Andrew Price – Research Executive
Robert Struthers – Research Manager