The latest BMG poll for the Herald reveals that support for Scottish independence has increased since the Prime Minister suggested that the UK would leave the single market.

The results found that with “don’t knows” removed, 49% of Scots now support independence, up 3 percentage points since BMG last poll for the Herald in December 2016.

A closer look at the data reveals that support for independence remains strongest among the young. A majority (56%) of those aged 16-34 are in favour of independence, up 5 percentage points on December, whereas just 25% of those aged 65 and over share the same view. Support for independence is also up among Remainers from 45% to 51%.

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop down menu below.

However, despite the increase in support, currently most Scots oppose holding a second independence referendum before the UK leaves the European Union. Excluding “don’t knows” 56% oppose another vote before the UK leaves the EU while 44% support another vote.

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop down menu below.

Dr Michael Turner, Research Director and Head of Polling at BMG Research, said “Our latest poll for the Herald paints a mixed picture on the independence debate in Scotland, with Brexit undoubtedly having an effect on support for the principle of independence and on what terms.

Interestingly, support for independence appears to be up significantly among Remainers, up 6 points to 51% since December.

However, although the results do show a clear rise in support since May’s speech, which suggested that the UK may go for a harder form of Brexit than first thought, the results also suggest that a majority of Scots may not have the appetite for another referendum before the Brexit negotiations are concluded.

Some 48% say that they do not wish to have another independence referendum before the Brexit negotiations are concluded between the UK and EU, compared to just 38% who say that they do. Excluding ‘don’t knows’ the polling suggests that opposition outweighs support by 56% to 44%.

Although these results suggest that opposition to independence is by no means an insurmountable task for Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP, they do imply that she is a fair way off from her ‘red-lines’ of clear and consistent support.

These results just go to show how critical the Brexit negotiations will be for the future constitutional arrangements of Scotland and the UK. It will be interesting to see if this support is sustained, or simply a knee-jerk reaction to May’s ‘Hard Brexit’ speech.”

An article based on these polling results, released by The Herald, can be found here.

Fieldwork dates and methodology can be found here.

A full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.


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Untitled2  Lauren Harris – Senior Research Executive

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