Though one in five people (21%) are yet to decide how they would cast their vote at the forthcoming referendum, today’s result supports an emerging trend in the polling; that the contest is narrowing.
When asked whether they would vote to leave or remain, around 39% said they would vote to leave, and 39% said they would vote to remain, 21% said they were undecided (1% prefer not to say).
Once ‘leaners’ are added in, this leaves the final valid figure split down the middle. See chart below.
Readers should note, that digging a little deeper into the data suggests a “Brexit” may not be quite as close at the headline figures suggest. Of those who say they are most likely to vote (note question intended for a general election), a slight majority said they wish to remain (48% Leave/52% Remain exl DK).
Undoubtedly there are many factors that will contribute to the EU debate, but Immigration appears to be a key issue. Today’s Standard/BMG poll found that of those who said Immigration & Asylum were the most important issue facing society today, more than three-quarters will vote to leave (77% Leave/33% Remain excl. DK), compared to just 38% of those whose main concern is not immigration (38% Leave/62% Remain excl. DK).
Consistent with previous BMG polls, the results show Londoners strongly in favour of staying (40% Leave/60% Remain excl. DK).
Finally, in searching for further support, both the in and out campaigns should perhaps turn to the large number of people who say they are not interested in politics, a third of whom are yet to make up their mind (38% Leave/25% Remain/34% Don’t know). Although this is potentially fertile ground for either campaign to target their message, they may be wiser to do so outside of usual the channels, involving fewer politicians and more celebrities/businesses if they are to engage successfully with this group.
The Evening Standard news article can be found here.
Data tables containing a breakdown of the results can be found here.
For further details about this poll, and any other results from our polling series, please feel free to get in touch by email or phone.
Dr Michael Turner – Research Director