The latest BMG poll commissioned by Mev Brown, former Chief Spokesman for Business for Britain in Scotland, reveals that a majority of Scots do not want another independence referendum before 2019.
Scots were asked to what extent they agree or disagree with the statement “A referendum on Scottish independence should not be triggered until the UK & EU have completed their Brexit negotiations“.
The results reveal that 51% of Scots agree with the statement and are therefore opposed to holding another vote on Scottish independence until the UK and EU have completed the Brexit deal. One in four (25%) said that they disagree with the statement, while almost the same proportion (24%) neither agree, nor disagree.
Unsurprisingly, “No Leavers” were strongly against another referendum, and conversely, “Yes Remainers” were strongly for one.
However, a closer look at the data reveals that over two thirds (69%) of “No Remainers”, those voters who voted to Remain in the EU and voted No at the independence referendum in 2014, are opposed to a second referendum. Whilst a majority of “Yes Leavers” (59%), those who voted Yes in 2014 and to Leave the EU last year, are also opposed to another referendum while the negotiations are on-going.
Dr Michael Turner, Research Director & Head of Polling at BMG Research, said “this poll supports others conducted, which suggest that Scots voters may be suffering from ‘voter-fatigue’. After all, Scotland has had five big referendums or elections in just three years.
“While recent polling by BMG shows that support for the principle of independence is up slightly since May’s ‘Hard Brexit’ speech in January, it also appears that most Scots are against another referendum being held without fully understanding what it is they will be voting for. While Sturgeon’s SNP have been actively courting “No Remainers” in the hope that their pro-Remain stance will warm them to the idea of an independent and pro-European Scotland, this strategy hasn’t, yet I might add, been successful.”
“In fact, part of the problem for Sturgeon has been the so-called “Yes Leavers”. Given that they have already voted for independence, Nicola Sturgeon could have expected this group to again be supportive of a referendum on independence this time around. However, it appears that this group are more hesitant about holding another poll whilst the UK is still negotiating inside the EU.”
“However, given that Article 50 hasn’t yet been invoked by the government, there is plenty of scope for public opinion to change in Scotland. The SNP will be hoping that “No Remainers”, Scotland’s largest cross-referendum voting bloc, will soften their views on independence in the coming months. Only time will tell”.
An article based on these polling results, featured in the Sunday Express, can be found here.
Fieldwork dates and methodology can be found here.
A full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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Lauren Harris – Senior Research Executive