BMG’s latest EU Referendum tracker polls continue to show Remain slightly ahead of Leave, though as for most EU Referendum polls, readers should be aware that these figures do not adjust for turnout.
Unlike previous months, BMG conducted three polls in September to track EU Referendum voting intentions. One at the beginning of the month, a second on the eve of Labour Party Conference, and a third just ahead of the Conservative Party Conference.
In each poll, voters were asked: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”. This is identical to the question that featured on the 2016 EU Referendum ballot paper and BMG has continued to track this question ever since.
All three polls show a consistent picture, with Remain marginally ahead of Leave. This reflects a similar pattern that we have seen since the turn of the year. However, while we have yet to see Leave record a lead over Remain in 2016, it should be noted that these findings are all within the margin of error.
Our most recent poll conducted between 28th and 29th September puts Remain on 47%, Leave on 43%, with 10% selecting don’t know or prefer not to say. After factoring in our squeeze question (that asks which way voters are leaning) the headline figure is 52% Remain and 48% Leave, after removing don’t knows and refusals.
An accurate methodology
This poll shares the same methodology as BMG’s pre-referendum EU Referendum tracker, which consistently reported Leave ahead in the run-up to the EU referendum in 2016, and also called the correct outcome.
This approach now has the added benefit of an additional weighting adjustment; i.e. how respondents voted, if at all, in 2016, which is the only major change to our approach since.
Although, at the time the team at BMG chose the telephone poll as its headline result, having published both the phone and online polls simultaneously, which can be found here (see table 9 on page 89), BMG has continued to favour its online methodology since the referendum in order to ensure the results are both accurate and comparable with an approach that accurately called the outcome of the EU Referendum.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results as well as all in the series since November 2016, can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
0121 333 6006
Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive
Dr Michael Turner – Head of Polling