BMG’s latest poll for the Evening Standard has found that a majority of UK adults want a General Election to take place this year.
The poll also found that if a second EU referendum were happen today, Remain would win comfortably.
One week on from the EU Referendum result and BMG Research has re-contacted more than one thousand people that it surveyed on the day of the referendum by telephone. The results give an interesting insight into how the public feel about how they voted, given economic and political consequences of the outcome. The survey also asked people how they felt about the campaigns and gives and asks them to indicate what they would like to happen next.
Following news that the Conservative party will be choosing a new leader in September, BMG asked respondents whether there should be another General Election this year. The results show that 52 per cent of adults want to see a General Election take place this year – with 32 per cent against such a move (16% – Don’t know).
However, when we delve deeper into the there is a substantial split on this issue between the generations – Among people aged 18-to-24, more than 7 in 10 (71%) want the next PM to go to the country to get a fresh mandate, and some 60% of 25 to 34-year-olds want the same. However, just 4 in 10 (40%) of those aged 65 and over say they want an early election.
A Second Referendum?
Most respondents (60%) were actually against holding a second EU referendum. Unsurprisingly, of those who voted to stay on the 23rd, 53% said that they would like as second referendum, compared to just 6% who backed Leave.
Perhaps most strikingly, 45% of respondents who said that they hadn’t voted on 23rd June would support a second referendum. When we couple this finding with the results which show that young people are most likely to regret not voting in the referendum (see below), the polling suggests that there is particularly strong demand for a second referendum among those young remainers who failed to turn up on referendum day.
If a second referendum were held, this poll suggests a clear lead for Remain with 45% of respondents favouring this side compared to 40% for Leave, and 15% withholding their response or being unsure (NOTE: where persons have refused or said they are undecided, but said how they voted in the previous survey we conducted with them, that previous information is imputed instead. As those who refuse on the re-contact survey are disproportionately Leave voters, this takes the original 45% Remain / 37% Leave / 18% Don’t know/PNTS – found in table 3 of the data tables release – to 45% Remain / 40% Leave / 15% Don’t know/PNTS ).
Leave voters express more regret than Remainers
The results of the poll show that 13% of Leavers say that they regret their decision to some degree, with around a third of them (4%) saying that they would change the way they voted. In comparison, only 4% of Remainers expressed any regrets.
The poll also found that one in twenty people (5%) who voted to Leave on June 23rd would now do the opposite, while 2% who backed Remain would change their vote.
Among respondents that did not vote on the 23rd June, over one quarter (26%) regret not voting and wished that they had, with younger voters (18-44) expressing the most regret – 52% of 18 to 24 year-olds said they wished they had voted, as did more than six out of ten (62%) 34 to 44-year-olds.
Michael Turner, Research Director at BMG Research, said: “Although most voters stand by their original decision, with no regrets, Leavers are much more likely than Remainers to regret how they voted, opting either to switch or stay at home if another referendum were held today.
“It is also clear from these results, that a large number of those who didn’t vote in the end, regret not doing so and are disproportionately in favour of the UK remaining in the EU.
“All of these findings suggest that if a second EU referendum were held, Remain would win fairly comfortably, due mainly to switching Leavers and increased turnout among non-voting europhiles.”
62% of respondents believe that the Leave campaign misled voters with the £350 million pledge to repatriate this sum from the EU for the NHS. Unsurprisingly, more Remainers than Leavers agreed that they were misled (89% compared to 44%).
Will Brexit affect your personal finances?
Finally, when asked whether they believed that they would be personally worse off in the short-term following Brexit, people appear to be evenly split, with 40% indicating that they would be worse off and 42% disagreeing. Just over six out of ten (61%) Remainers think they will suffer financially in the short-term, but exactly the same proportion of Leavers believe they will benefit.
An article based on these polling results, released by The Evening Standard, can be found here.
Data tables containing a breakdown of these results can be found here.
Fieldwork information and methodology can be found here.
For any other results from our polling series, please feel free to get in touch with BMG by email or phone.
0121 333 6006
Jemma Conner – Junior Research Executive – BMG Research