With phase two of the Brexit negotiations due to commence later this year, a recent BMG poll on behalf of Left Foot Forward reveals that the majority of the public would support a fresh in-out referendum on EU membership in the event of a “no deal” Brexit.
The poll, conducted between 9th and 12th January, asked a representative sample of 1513 adults “Imagine a scenario where the UK Government and the European Union were unable to reach a deal – a scenario sometimes referred to as a “no deal” Brexit. A ‘no deal’ Brexit would result in the UK having no preferential trading and custom arrangements with the EU, leaving us to trade with the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. In this scenario, would you support a new/fresh in-out referendum on EU membership?”
The poll found that 42% would support a new in-out referendum, with just under a third (32%) against. Just over one in five (26%) were unsure. With don’t knows removed, the figures stand at 57% in support and 43% against. This represents a slight rise in support since December when 54% of those with a view backed a second vote in the event of “no deal”, although it should be noted that the increase is within the margin of error.
The results reveal a large disparity between Conservative and Labour voters. Of those who reported backing Labour in the 2017 General Election, nearly three in five (59%) would support a second referendum, which compares to just 27% of Conservative voters.
Predictably, those that voted leave in 2016 were much more likely to oppose a new referendum (63%), with remain voters were more likely to support a fresh poll (68%). However, it is interesting that a significant cohort of remain voters either oppose (13%) or are unsure about a fresh referendum (18%), as do a notable minority of leaver voters support the idea of a fresh poll (19%) or don’t know (19%).
There is also significant support for a new referendum among those who didn’t vote in 2016. Despite not voting last time, over two in five (42%) would support a fresh ballot, with as little as 17% opposed. 41% were unsure.
The original article that reported on these results by Left Foot Forward can be found here
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results for both December and January can be found here
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
0121 333 6006
Dan Clarke – Research Intern
Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive