BMG’s latest Brexit polling for the Independent explores public attitudes towards the possibility of another referendum on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, which leader the public would prefer to handle the Brexit process, and the extent to which the public view possible Brexit compromises as acceptable.
Key findings from the polling are presented below:
1. A majority back a ‘final say’ referendum on the Brexit outcome.
Conducted between 2nd and 5th April, the poll asked a representative sample of 1500 GB adults about the extent to which they would support a final vote on Brexit irrespective of the outcome of the negotiations. A slim majority, some 52%, support the notion of a final say on Brexit, with one in four opposed (24%) and a further 24% stating neither support nor oppose.
It is worth noting that whilst support is relatively high – and slightly higher than it has been in previous months – the question does not specify the nature of the referendum question and the options on the ballot paper. Thus, it is possible that support may drop somewhat depending on the options available.
2. More view accepting free movement rules as acceptable than do the UK not being able to sign their own trade deals and the UK being subject to ECJ rulings
As the Brexit process stalls, Theresa May has reached out to the Labour party in a bid to try and win support for her Withdrawal Agreement. There has been speculation that a possible deal may see the Prime Minister move on some of her ‘red lines’ in order to come to an agreement.
Respondents to the poll were asked about the extent to which they see three possible compromises as acceptable. Of the three, the UK abiding by freedom movement rules was described as acceptable by more respondents than any other option (50%). Meanwhile, just a third of respondents described the UK being unable to sign its own trade deals as satisfactory (36%), with only 30% viewing the UK being subject to ECJ rulings as an acceptable outcome.
3. On the question of handling the Brexit process, the public prefer Theresa May to Jeremy Corbyn
Given the difficulties the Prime Minister has experienced in winning support for her deal in Parliament, it might come as surprising that the public – albeit by a slim margin – prefer Theresa May over Jeremy Corbyn when it comes to who they would prefer to handle the Brexit process.
One in five (22%) say they would prefer Theresa May to handle Brexit, with just 16% selecting Jeremy Corbyn. It is notable that just four in ten select either leader, with 47% opting for ‘none of the above’ and a further 15% unsure. This shows that whilst May is slightly favoured over Corbyn on this question, the poll can hardly be seen as a ringing endorsement of either leader. This should come as no surprise – BMG polling shows both leaders now routinely record net-negative leadership satisfaction ratings.
Those respondents who answered none of the above or don’t know were then asked in a ‘forced-choice’ format which of the two leaders they would prefer if they ‘had to choose’. Again, by a relatively slim margin, Theresa May was the most popular choice, with six in ten opting for the prime minister (59%) versus 41% who selected the leader of the opposition.
An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
0121 333 6006
Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive