BMG’s final vote intention poll for 2017 shows Labour retaining their polling lead over the Conservatives. The exclusive survey for The Independent puts Labour on 40%, ahead of the Conservatives on 37%.
The gap, however, is slightly narrower than the five-percentage-point lead Labour recorded over the Tories in our September vote intention poll, although the movement since September is well within the normal margin of error. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems achieve only single digits (9%), with UKIP on 5%.
It is worth noting that the poll was conducted between 5th and 8th December – a rollercoaster time in the Brexit negotiations, with fieldwork beginning the day after news broke that the much-rumoured phase one deal had fallen through at the last minute, and closing just as Brits were waking up to the news that Mrs. May had now managed to come to an agreement with her Brussels counterparts. It is therefore unclear from this poll what effect, if any, a deal being agreed has had on vote intentions.
An article by The Independent on our polling, can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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Robert Struthers – Research Executive