BMG’s most recent voting intention poll for HuffPost UK, shows the two main parties tied on 38% of the vote, the Lib Dems down one point to 10% and UKIP down two points to 5%.
The exclusive survey on behalf of HuffPost UK, was conducted online with 1,006 adults living in Britain between 21st and 22nd September 2018.
Readers should note that all changes are within the margin of error of the poll, meaning that we cannot be confident the estimates are any different from those published at the beginning of September.
Is there appetite for a new party?
Our poll found that 58% of Britons said ‘Yes’ they would consider voting for a new political party if it better represented their views. Those most likely to consider include; LibDems, high earners (Households on more than £60k), Young people (aged 18-34) and those who hold a degree.
Most of those polled (42%) said that they identify as political ‘centrists’, rather than on the ‘Left’ (30%) or ‘Right’ (27%) of the political spectrum.
Interestingly, when asked if they feel that Labour MPs who are opposed to Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership should stay and make their case from within, or should they leave the Labour party, a majority of Britons (53%) said Labour MPs should stay and make their case for change within the party and Corbyn rather than go. This figure rises to 57% among Labour voters.
Mixed views on Austerity
Interestingly around a third of Britons (34%) thought that austerity had been a bad thing for the country, and around a quarter (24%) felt it had been a good thing.
People were also asked; “Thinking now about your own personal experience, have you noticed if government spending has affected any of the following services?” and then prompted about a series of public services. A majority of people that they believe that they have noticed government spending on hospitals had led to a worse service, 56% said they had noticed they had got worse or significantly worse, just 9% said it would get better. The same proportions said policing had suffered because of government spending (56%), with just 7% saying they felt it had got better.
The state of social care was also seen to have been significantly damaged, with 51% reporting they had noticed a significant worsening.
Appetite for a General Election and leadership in the Labour party
The polling also found that almost half (48%) of Britons said that the Labour Party’s antisemitism row affected public support for Jeremy Corbyn for the worse, as did most Labour supporters (38%).
Interestingly, were he to stand down, voters London Mayor Sadiq Khan was favourite to be his replacement (12% of those who had heard of him). Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell was second on 8%, and Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was third on 6%.
The polling also found that Sadiq Khan was Labour’s most recognisable politician, with 74% of Britons aware of who he is. He was followed by Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott on 70%, backbencher Yvette Cooper on 51% and John McDonnell on 47%.
Although a majority (50%) of those polled said that they were in favour of a General Election to be held should Parliament vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal, when we asked the question without the pre-condition of May’s deal being voted down, we found that almost as many (49%) felt the same way. 34% said that they were against the idea of a General Election within 3-months, and this fell to 29% if May’s deal were voted down (around 17% and 21% respectively did not know).
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
Please note that our method has changed after the 2017 General Election. Full details can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
0121 333 6006
Dr Michael Turner – Head of Polling