A recent BMG poll on behalf of The Independent shows that 48% of the public now support a public vote on the terms of the Government’s Brexit deal. The results represent a small increase in support from last month, up four points.
Conducted between 7th and 10th August, a representative sample of 1481 British adults were asked: “Should a Brexit deal be reached between Britain and the EU, to what extent would you support or oppose a referendum being held asking the public whether they accept or reject the terms of the deal?”.
Close to half, some 48%, said they backed a fresh vote on the deal’s terms, with one in four (24%) in opposition. 16% had no view either way, with a further 11% answering don’t know.
This represents a four-point increase in support on last month, with opposition down also down three points. However, readers should note that these shifts are within the margin or error.
Two in five leave voters support referendum on the final deal
38% of leave voters said they would support a referendum on the final deal, slightly fewer than said they were opposed to the idea (43%). While this may seem high, these figures alone cannot be interpreted as an indication of so-called ‘buyer’s remorse’; many leave voters may back a vote in order to express opposition to any compromises or concessions agreed by the Government with the EU.
A mandate to leave without a deal?
Respondents were also asked if they believed the 2016 EU referendum result gave the Government a so-called ‘mandate’ to leave without a deal. Respondents were split: 36% said the result did not give her a mandate, with 34% saying it did, and almost a third (31%) unsure.
A minority of respondents who voted to leave in 2016 said the vote did not give the government a mandate (20%), although a clear majority said that it did (60%). Similarly, most remain voters did not feel the result constituted a mandate for no deal (55%), but a minority were also of the opposite view (22%).
Half say May should be replaced if she cannot secure deal that wins confidence of cabinet
49% of voters said that Theresa May should be replaced if she can’t agree a deal that her cabinet support, with just 25% saying she should remain in post. And in the event that Theresa May resign should resign, most voters say there should be a general election held immediately (52%), rather than Theresa May being replaced without a General Election being held (28%).
Boris Johnson ‘favourite’ for next PM
The poll also asked respondents which Conservative politician they would want to see as Prime Minister. 15% said Boris Johnson, more than twice as many that said Ruth Davidson and Jacob Rees-Mogg (both on 6%), the next most popular choices. And while Boris Johnson was the most popular choice, more than half said either don’t know (25%) or none (33%).
Among leave voters, Boris is a clear favourite, the choice of 25%, followed by Jacob Rees Mogg on 13%. For remain voters, Ruth Davidson tops the list, on 8%, followed closely by Philip Hammond (7%).
An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive