The latest BMG poll for the Independent reveals that the British public overwhelmingly oppose Theresa May’s plan to quit the EU with no deal in place, should Parliament reject the terms that she agrees with Brussels. The poll also found that the public believe Brexit negotiations will have a negative impact on the British economy.
The results show that twice as many Britons would rather the UK try and secure a different deal or stay in the EU, if parliament does not endorse any deal that May’s Brexit negotiators agree with the EU.
When asked what “should happen next” if Parliament rejects the Prime Ministers deal, just one quarter of Britons (25%) said “we should leave the EU with no set future relations in place and revert to trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation rules.”
A greater proportion (27%), said that Theresa May should continue to renegotiate a deal while around one in seven (14%) said that we should stay in the EU on new terms that the Prime Minister would negotiate. Only one in six (15%) said that we should stay in the EU on existing terms (19% don’t know).
When combined, more than half the public (a total of 56%) favour a position that differs from the Prime Minister’s plan to leave the EU with no set relations in place, should she not have parliamentary approval.
The poll also found that some 43% of the public think that the Brexit negotiations, over the next two years, will have a “bad” impact on the British economy, of which 14% think they will be “very bad”. One third of Britons (33%) think that Brexit negotiations will have a “good” impact on the economy while just under a quarter (24%) said that they think it will have no impact.
Dr Michael Turner, Research Director at BMG Research, said “While Mrs May continues to suggest that her government will pursue a hard Brexit, it appears that public opinion, and for that matter the views of a majority her supporters, are opposed, with most in favour of a more balanced approach to exiting the EU.
Interestingly, excluding don’t knows, BMG’s latest poll for the Independent shows that both ‘hard Brexiteers‘, and ‘hard Remainers‘ are actually in a minority overall, with a majority of the public favouring a more nuanced position from the government. The results show that a majority of Conservative (51%) and Labour supporters (52%), and almost a majority of Lib Dem supporters (49%), say that they want Mrs May to continue negotiating for a new deal, should Parliament decide to reject any a version that is reached between UK and EU negotiators by 2018/19. Strikingly, even a significant minority of Leave supporters, some 42%, are in favour of something other than the very hardest of Brexit deals, as are a whopping 94% of those who support Remain (excl. DKs).
Whether the outcome means that the UK ends up staying within the EU on new terms, or that the negotiations continue till Parliament is satisfied with the outcome, it is clear that most Britons would like both a change from the status quo, but also for the government to deliver an arrangement that meets both sides of the debate somewhere in the middle.”
An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.
Fieldwork dates and methodology can be found here.
A full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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Lauren Harris – Senior Research Executive