BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, taken just before the government prorogued parliament for 5 weeks on September 9th, shows the Conservatives lead over Labour decrease further to four points.

The poll was conducted between 3rd – 6th August and surveyed 1,504 GB adults.

Whilst the changes on last month are well within the margin of error, the Conservatives lead reduces to 4 points (down from 6), with the Conservatives on 31% and Labour on 27%. This is the first time since April that Labour’s share of the vote has increased after their vote declined from 34% in April to 25% in August.

The Liberal Democrats continue to maintain their support (19%), as do the Greens (6%).

The Brexit Party’s vote intention also remained steady on 13%, but is still 5 percentage points lower than the support they were attracting in June of this year when the polled 18% (see note on methodology change below).

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.

**A note on a change to the format of our voting intention question**

BMG’s voting intention question is asked in two stages. Prior to August, we asked respondents to select from Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, SNP (if living in Scotland), Plaid Cymru (if living in Wales), or “another party”. Those respondents who selected “another party” were presented with parties who are less established or who typically attract less support. This list included the Brexit Party, The Independent Group for Change (formerly Change UK), the Green Party, and UKIP.

After July’s poll, BMG reviewed the format of our vote intention question. By running a Random Control Trial (RCT) test, we showed half a representative sample the original version, and half the sample a version where all the parties featured in the initial list. The results showed only marginal differences for the Greens and the Brexit Party in terms of vote share received, all within the margin of error. Thus, including them in the “another party” list did not appear to be suppressing their support.
Given there is no indication of an “artificial” boost for either the Green or the Brexit party, we have decided from August 2019 onwards to include them both in our initial prompted list.There is no exact science as to when a party should be included in the initial prompt, but our testing did suggest that both parties are now attracting enough support, which appears solid irrespective of question format, where it is reasonable that they feature on the initial list without any clear risks of inflating their support artificially.

BMG continues to review our polling methodology and any future changes will be outlined on our website.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk
@BMGResearch
0121 333 6006

Paul Bedford – Research Executive

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