BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, taken after the Government’s proroguing of parliament was ruled to be unlawful by the Supreme Court, shows the Conservative’s lead over Labour remaining steady on 5 points.
The poll was conducted between 1st – 4th October and surveyed 1,514 GB adults.
The Conservatives lead increases slightly on last month to 5 points (up from 4). They remain on 31%, the third month in succession they have scored this percentage. The Labour Party share fell 1 percentage point to 26%, the fifth successive month they have obtained between 25% and 27%. This reflects an overall trend in recent months, which has seen little fluctuation in voting intention share between the two traditionally dominant parties.
The Liberal Democrats continue to maintain their support (20%), as do the Greens (7%).
Meanwhile Brexit Party’s vote intention fell to 11%, some 7 percentage points lower than the support they were attracting in June of this year when they polled 18% (see note on methodology change below). The Independent Group for Change and UKIP both obtained less than 0.5% share of the vote, the latter for the first time in BMG’s Westminster voting intention poll.
Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.
**A note on a change to the format of our voting intention question**
BMG’s voting intention question is asked in two stages. Prior to August, we asked respondents to select from Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, SNP (if living in Scotland), Plaid Cymru (if living in Wales), or “another party”. Those respondents who selected “another party” were presented with parties who are less established or who typically attract less support. This list included the Brexit Party, The Independent Group for Change (formerly Change UK), the Green Party, and UKIP.
After July’s poll, BMG reviewed the format of our vote intention question. By running a Random Control Trial (RCT) test, we showed half a representative sample the original version, and half the sample a version where all the parties featured in the initial list. The results showed only marginal differences for the Greens and the Brexit Party in terms of vote share received, all within the margin of error. Thus, including them in the “another party” list did not appear to be suppressing their support.
Given there is no indication of an “artificial” boost for either the Green or the Brexit party, we have decided from August 2019 onwards to include them both in our initial prompted list. There is no exact science as to when a party should be included in the initial prompt, but our testing did suggest that both parties are now attracting enough support, which appears solid irrespective of question format, where it is reasonable that they feature on the initial list without any clear risks of inflating their support artificially.
BMG continues to review our polling methodology and any future changes will be outlined on our website.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
Paul Bedford – Research Executive