With party conference season coming to a close, BMG’s latest polling for the Independent shows a small Labour lead.

Against both our last voting intention poll for HuffPost UK AND our monthly tracker for The Independent there are only minor changes, and all changes well within the margin of error that is standard for Voting Intention polls in the UK.

 

 

 

 

Given the comparable fieldwork period (i.e. polling conducted over weekdays and over a 3-day period rather than 24 hours) this poll should be compared with the previous Independent Tracker for September and the rest of this post does so.

The voting intention for both the Conservative party and the Labour party has increased by 1% since last September, leaving the Conservatives on 38% and Labour on 39%. UKIP have had the largest change, a decrease of 3% compared to last month, leaving them with just 4%. The Liberal Democrats’ voting intention continues to maintain double-digits, with a 1% decrease to 10%.

 

Statement on confidence of Westminster Voting Intention polling results

Readers should note that all polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. The historical record of public opinion polls at recent General Elections suggests that there is a 9 in 10 chance the true value of a party’s support share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and there is a 2 in 3 chance that the results lie within 2 points.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

Please note that our method has changed after the 2017 General Election. Full details can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

 

 

 

Andrew Price – Research Executive

 

 

 

Dr Michael Turner – Head of Polling