BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, taken as parliament was dissolved for the coming December election, saw the Conservatives extend their lead over Labour to 8 points.

The poll was conducted between 5th – 8th November and surveyed 1,504 GB adults.

The Conservative’s lead over the Labour party increases on last month to 8 points (up from 5). November’s poll shows the voting intention share for the Conservative party increase by 6 points from October, to 37%, the first time since March 2019 that they received a proportion this high. The Labour Party also saw their share of the vote increase 3 points to 29%. This is the first time since May 2019 that they have scored above 27% of the voting intention. This ends an overall trend in recent months, which had seen Labour stay between 25% and 27% since June 2019 and the Conservatives remain on 31% for the past 3 months.

The Liberal Democrats failed to maintain their support for the first time since June 2019, dropping 4 points to 16% which is one of the largest drops in voting intention BMG has recorded for the Lib Dems since its began voting intention polling in 2017. The greens are unchanged on 7%.

Meanwhile Brexit Party’s share continued to fall, recording a share of 9% for November. This is some 9 percentage points lower than the support they were attracting in June of this year when the polled 18%. The Independent Group for Change and UKIP both obtained less than 0.5% share of the vote.

Rob Struthers, head of polling at BMG, said

 “Findings from our first vote intention poll of the 2019 general election campaign suggest that support for Labour and the Conservatives has increased at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party.

 “Perhaps a product of media coverage so far, or the first-past-the-post system beginning to focus minds, this poll presents some early warning signs for the two main challengers to two-party dominance at this election.

“Fielded during the first days of the campaign, findings from this poll represent the highest vote shares we have seen for both main parties for some time.

“Corbyn’s Labour Party last recorded a higher share of the vote in May of this year. In the case of Johnson’s Conservatives, we have to go as far back as March of this year to find a month where we found their support at this level or above.

“Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party, who would have been hoping their strong stances on Brexit will galvanise support during this campaign, both see their vote shares squeezed.”

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.

**A note on a change to the format of our voting intention question**

BMG’s voting intention question is asked in two stages. Prior to August, we asked respondents to select from Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, SNP (if living in Scotland), Plaid Cymru (if living in Wales), or “another party”. Those respondents who selected “another party” were presented with parties who are less established or who typically attract less support. This list included the Brexit Party, The Independent Group for Change (formerly Change UK), the Green Party, and UKIP.

After July’s poll, BMG reviewed the format of our vote intention question. By running a Random Control Trial (RCT) test, we showed half a representative sample the original version, and half the sample a version where all the parties featured in the initial list. The results showed only marginal differences for the Greens and the Brexit Party in terms of vote share received, all within the margin of error. Thus, including them in the “another party” list did not appear to be suppressing their support.
Given there is no indication of an “artificial” boost for either the Green or the Brexit party, we have decided from August 2019 onwards to include them both in our initial prompted list. There is no exact science as to when a party should be included in the initial prompt, but our testing did suggest that both parties are now attracting enough support, which appears solid irrespective of question format, where it is reasonable that they feature on the initial list without any clear risks of inflating their support artificially.

BMG continues to review our polling methodology and any future changes will be outlined on our website.

An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results and a number of other questions released by the Independent can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk
@BMGResearch
0121 333 6006

Paul Bedford – Research Executive

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