As the political turmoil continues at Westminster, with a number of Tory MP’s pushing for a no-confidence vote in Theresa May’s Government, BMG’s most recent voting intention poll continues to show a very narrow gap between the two main parties. Both parties have been locked around the same levels since September 2018, with Labour finishing the year on 38%, and the Conservatives just below at 37% (effectively tied when the margin of error is accounted for).

The gulf in preferences between young and old also continues. December’s poll shows that 58% of 18-24s intend to vote Labour, while 57% of over 65s say they would back the Conservatives.

While changes since last month are within the margin of error, the long-term trend would suggest that the Liberal Democrats have seen a small increase in their levels of support, finishing the year on 12%, their highest tally since July 2017. Overall support for the Greens and UKIP remains steady at 4% respectively.

Readers should note that all polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. The historical record of public opinion polls at recent General Elections suggests that there is a 9 in 10 chance the true value of a party’s support share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and there is a 2 in 3 chance that the results lie within 2 points.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

Please note that our method has changed after the 2017 General Election.

Full details can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.


0121 333 6006

 Marcos Contopoulos – Research Manager



Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive

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