BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll shows the Conservative maintaining their lead over the Labour party. The poll was conducted between 4th and 8th March – so prior Theresa May’s revised deal being put before and rejected by Parliament – surveyed 1,503 GB adults.

The Conservative lead over Labour increases to five percentage points, with the Conservatives on 39% and Labour on 34%. This represents the lowest recorded vote share for the Labour party since the 2017 General Election.

The Liberal Democrats and UKIP vote shares remain stable on 12% and 5% respectively.

What about the Independent Group?

BMG also asked respondents a separate voting intention question that included an option for The Independent Group (TIG). The parliamentary grouping, formed of eight Labour MPs and three Conservatives, is the fourth largest in Parliament and is currently in talks with the Electoral Commission to register as a political party.

Respondents were asked: “If a hypothetical General Election were held today with the following parties available to vote for, who would you vote for?”, with the option of the Independent Group included in addition to the other parties.

Unlike other polls examining support for TIG, the question did not include a preamble explaining who the party were or information on their policy agenda, with no questions asked prior referring to the party either. Our poll therefore relies exclusively on respondents “top-of-mind” awareness of the group, with little chance that any respondents stating they would vote for them as a result of being primed by the wording of the survey question.

That said, it is worth noting that the poll provides every respondent with the opportunity to select TIG, despite it being unclear how many seats the party – presuming it is indeed established – would opt to stand in across Great Britain.

The poll shows The Independent Group attracting the support of 5%, with each of the main parties vote shares declining slightly. However, the Conservatives lead over Labour does extend ever so slightly to seven percentage points (with the Conservatives on 37% and Labour on 31% respectively. Whilst down slightly, the Liberal Democrats remain in double figures on 10%.

Readers should note that all polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. The historical record of public opinion polls at recent General Elections suggests that there is a 9 in 10 chance the true value of a party’s support share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and there is a 2 in 3 chance that the results lie within 2 points.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

Please note that our method has changed after the 2017 General Election. Full details can be found here.


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Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive

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