BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll shows the Brexit party’s share increase at the expense of the Conservatives and Labour.

The poll was conducted between 4th – 7th June and surveyed 1,520 GB adults.

The Conservative party’s voting intention remained largely stable since last month, slipping back only slightly (26%). Meanwhile, the Labour party share falls by 3 percentage points, down to 27%.

The Brexit party and the Liberal Democrats jostle for the third spot, on 18% and 17% respectively. Meanwhile, after a turbulent month for the newly formed party, Change UK see their vote intention share drop to just 1%, level with UKIP.

Commenting on the results, Robert Struthers, Head of Polling at BMG Research, said:

“Following their success in last month’s European elections, the question on everyone’s mind was whether the Brexit Party could translate their support at a second order election into a Westminster context.

Whilst their support is still considerably lower than the 32% they polled three weeks ago, our findings for this month do suggest a growing proportion of voters are saying they will back the Brexit Party in a General Election.

What is certain is that the Brexit issue is putting a major strain on both parties, with a quarter of those who said they backed the Conservatives in 2017 saying they will now support Nigel Farage’s new outfit and close to one in five of those who supported Labour in 2017 saying they will switch to the Liberal Democrats.”

Readers should note that all polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. The historical record of public opinion polls at recent General Elections suggests that there is a 9 in 10 chance the true value of a party’s support share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and there is a 2 in 3 chance that the results lie within 2 points.

A note on question-wording:

As it stands, BMG’s voting intention question is asked in two stages. Firstly, we ask respondents to select from Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, SNP (if living in Scotland), Plaid Cymru (if living in Wales), or “another party”. Those respondents who select “another party” are then presented with parties who are less established or who typically attract less support. This list currently includes the Brexit Party, Change UK, the Green Party, and UKIP.

However, there comes a point where parties are attracting enough support where it is both likely that they will be standing in the vast majority of seats at the next General Election and where not including them in the first list would risk understating their support. Given that support for the Brexit Party (as well as the Green Party) is increasing and perhaps reaching this “tipping point”, we are currently testing and reviewing the structure of our voting intention question. Any future changes to question wording will be outlined in our next release.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

Please note that our method has changed after the 2017 General Election. Full details can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk
@BMGResearch
0121 333 6006
Andrew Price – Research Executive