BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, our first since the 2019 general election, sees the Conservative maintain a considerable lead over Labour.

The poll was conducted between 8th – 10th January and surveyed 1,508 GB adults.

The Conservatives attract 44 points in our poll, the same share they received in the December election. They hold a sizable 15 point lead over Labour, who attract 29 percent support, 3 percentage points lower than their general election result.

The Liberal Democrats achieved 11%, while the Greens are on 5% and the Brexit Party on 4%.

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.

To help account for differential turnout, during the 2019 general election, factors were applied to our polling results which considered rates of electoral registration among key groups. These factors have not been applied to this poll as these factors were designed to only be applied during election campaigns once the electoral registration window had closed.

Respondents to this poll were able to choose from a list of all parties, including those who may not have stood in their area in the 2019 campaign. By contrast, our polling during the election campaign made use of constituency level information to ensure that respondents were only able to select from those parties/candidates confirmed as standing in their constituency at the 2019 General Election.

BMG continues to review our polling methodology and any future changes will be outlined on our website.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results and a number of other questions released by the Independent can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
0121 333 6006

Paul Bedford – Research Executive

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