BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll shows the Conservative party pull ahead of the Labour party for the first time since July 2018. The poll was conducted between 4th – 8th February and surveyed 1,503 GB adults.

The Conservative party’s voting intention share rose by 2% from January to 38%, giving them a lead over the Labour party of 3%. The Labour party’s vote intention share has decreased by 1% from last month, leaving them on just 35%. This is the lowest voting intention recorded since the 2017 UK General Election. However, please note that these results are within the margin of error.

The Liberal Democrats and UKIP voting intention share has remained stable on 13% and 5% respectively.

Readers should note that all polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. The historical record of public opinion polls at recent General Elections suggests that there is a 9 in 10 chance the true value of a party’s support share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and there is a 2 in 3 chance that the results lie within 2 points.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

Please note that our method has changed after the 2017 General Election. Full details can be found here.


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Andrew Price – Research Executive

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