BMG’s final European Parliament voting intention poll shows the Brexit Party out in front.
The poll, conducted between 20th and 22nd May, puts Nigel Farage’s outfit on 35%, up 9 points on our last poll (released 7th-10th May).
Labour and the Liberal Democrats jostle for second place, on 18% and 17% respectively. The Conservatives, meanwhile, attract the support of just 12%.
The Greens record a respectable 8%, while UKIP’s vote share appears to have collapsed on just 2%.
Commenting on the results, Robert Struthers, Head of Polling at BMG, said:
“In the 2014 European Parliament elections, Nigel Farage’s UKIP topped the poll. On the eve of polling day, our final poll suggests Farage is set to do so again, and even more remarkably, he is at the helm of a different party.
“What’s more, the margin of their lead is even larger than that recorded by UKIP in 2014, with our final poll showing the Brexit Party some 17 points ahead of Labour.
“Having mopped up the UKIP vote, it is clear that the Brexit party now represent a significant threat to the Conservatives should they be able to translate a sizeable proportion of their support at these elections into support in a Westminster context. Our final poll shows 56% of likely voters who reported voting Conservative in the 2017 General Election saying they intend to back the Brexit Party in tomorrow’s election.
“And whilst support for the Brexit Party appears to have increased since our last poll, our latest figures would suggest that Change UK have failed to bolster their support in the closing weeks of the campaign. If the poll is to be believed, the fortunes of the two new parties at this election could hardly be more different.”
A note on our methodology: Given that historically turnout is lower in European Parliament elections – between 30% and 40% on the last three occasions – our poll has been adjusted to include only those who say they will definitely vote on the 23rd (10 out of 10 on likelihood to vote scale). Turnout is very difficult for pollsters to forecast, particularly in lower turnout contests, as respondents tend to overstate their likelihood to vote. Even after making this adjustment, our implied turnout figure is 46% which would be high by historical standards. That said, given the unique circumstances around this election, voters could well be more motivated to vote than normal.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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Andrew Price – Research Executive