BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i paper which has found that Labour holds a 17 point lead over the Conservatives, with 47% of voters supporting Labour and 30% backing the Conservatives.

Only 54% of those who voted Conservative in the last general election in 2019 said they would still vote Conservative, while 15% have switched to the Labour party.

The research also shows that Sir Keir Starmer’s personal ratings are higher than that of Prime Minister Liz Truss, who is almost as unpopular as her predecessor was towards the end of his time in Office. Liz Truss has an approval rating of -29, slightly higher than the -35 polled for Boris Johnson a month ago.

The mini-budget seems to have had an effect on likelihood to vote Conservative, with 47% of those aware of the fiscal event saying they were now less likely to vote for the Conservatives, including 38% of those who voted Conservative in 2019.

Elsewhere, the poll shows:

  • Nearly every fiscal measure included in the mini-budget was individually popular, with only the scrapping of the bankers bonus cap and the 45% top rate of tax paid by those earning more than £150,000 having net negative scores.
  • Despite that, 55% of voters said they felt negative towards the mini-budget.
  • Only those with household income over £70,000 felt they would benefit from the budget more than they would lose from it.

“As market confidence has plummeted, so too have the Conservative prospects for the next General Election.”

“If borne out in a General Election, a 17-point lead would be enough to give the Labour party a 1997-esque landslide majority. Strikingly, just half of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would do so again, with around 1 in 7 saying they’d now vote Labour.”

“Despite being the person the Conservative Party has put trust in to revive their fortunes, Liz Truss now has a net-satisfaction rating comparable with that of Boris Johnson at the end of his tenure, who was very unpopular himself.”  

“Rather than a so-called political honeymoon, Liz Truss has left a very negative first impression, with half of Brits already saying they are dissatisfied with her leadership and just one in five satisfied.”

“What’s more, Labour’s lead looks particularly robust. For voters who are undecided, our polling methodology makes adjustments based on how they previously voted in 2019, the assumption being that some of those currently unsure would likely drift back when push comes to shove.”

“Many 2019 Conservatives fall into this category which partially helps explain why our poll lead, despite being as high as 17 points, is actually lower than some other pollsters. A truly extraordinary turnaround and a situation that Labour could only have dreamed of just a matter of weeks ago.”

Additional details

An article by The i on vote intention can be found here

An article on the cost of living implications of the mini budget can be found here

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

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