BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i paper which has found that Labour holds a 23 point lead over the Conservatives, with 49% of voters supporting Labour and 26% backing the Conservatives. If this result was repeated at an election, this would give Labour a historic landslide result.

This is a 6-percentage point increase for Labour compared to our last poll but there are early signs that Rishi Sunak has made some ground back since being appointed Prime Minister. The research also shows that most voters want a general election by the end of 2022.

The poll shows both leaders, Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, have positive net ratings. Rishi Sunak has a net satisfaction rating of 26% compared to Keir Starmer’s 33% net satisfaction rating.

Sunak beats his Starmer on the overall economy, setting tax rates, and supporting UK businesses. He is also the neck-and-neck with his opposite number on the issue of the cost of living and making decisions around spending on public services. Notably, Starmer doesn’t have a substantial lead on any of these issues.

Elsewhere, the poll shows:

  • Sunak is level with Starmer on who the public would prefer to be Prime Minister
  • The public disagree with the idea one can become Prime Minister without holding a General Election first
  • Whilst Sunak beats Starmer head-to-head on issues around the economy, spending and tax, Labour leads the Conservatives when the question is framed around which party is best to handle these issues

“Our headline vote intention numbers make pleasant reading for Labour. A 23-point Labour lead would leave the Conservatives with only around 100 seats if repeated at an election, very much electoral wipe-out territory.”

“But Labour should not be complacent. Our polling demonstrates that Rishi Sunak presents a markedly different challenge than that of his predecessor.”

“Given his repeated warnings about the Truss economic agenda during the summer leadership contest, Sunak looks to have largely avoided the damage that has been inflicted on the Conservative party brand by the disastrous mini-budget. Starmer trounces Truss in a head-to-head choice for Prime Minister, but he is only neck-and-neck with his new opposite number when voters are given a straight choice.”

“The Conservatives trail Labour when the public is asked who is best to handle the economy and the cost of living, but Sunak beats Starmer on issues such as the economy, setting tax rates, and supporting UK businesses when framed as a choice between the two leaders.”

“Those around Sunak will be hoping his appeal on these issues will start to recover some of the wider brand damage done to the Conservative Party during Truss’s short but disastrous time in power. Sunak, of course, still faces considerable challenges on multiple fronts, but these numbers should give the Conservatives hope that all is not lost.”

Additional details

An article by The i on vote intention can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here. Tracked tables can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.com

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

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