BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and coverage of the Conservative Party Conference:

  • Labour lead by 14 points with 44% saying that they would vote for Labour compared to 30% saying that they would vote Conservative.
  • All of the policies announced at Conservative Party Conference that we polled the public on had more support than opposition, including the controversial decision to cut the Northern leg of HS2 between Birmingham and Manchester (33% support & 24% oppose).
  • However, of the 39% of 2019 Conservative Party voters would not vote for the party now, the main reason given for no longer voting for the Conservatives now was not trusting the party to deliver on their promises (60%).
  • Labour is also more trusted on most policy issues than the Conservatives, with the highest leads on welfare & benefits issues (20%), social care (19%), housing (18%) and healthcare / NHS (18%).
  • With the exception of Ukraine, more of the British public think the Conservatives had performed poorly than well on all policy issues since 2019. The greatest proportions feeling that the Conservatives have performed poorly on immigration (60%), healthcare / the NHS (59%) and the cost of living (59%).
  • Sunak’s net satisfaction remains low. 26% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister (cf. 31% in November / early December), and 51% are dissatisfied (cf. 34% in November / early December), giving the PM a net satisfaction rating of -25. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer satisfaction remains similar last wave (29% satisfied and 32% dissatisfied), but with a much clearer lead on who would make a better PM between him and Sunak (35% c.f. 30%)
  • Nearly half (46%) want a general election in the next six months, while 27% say it should be more than six months away and 27% don’t know when the election should be held.

On Conservative Party Conference and Voting Intention:

“With no evidence of a post-conference bounce, the outlook for the Conservatives continues to look bleak. They continue to trail by a margin that would see Labour win a landslide majority.

Sunak announced a range of policies, and our polling shows popular support for them in the country. Banning mobiles in schools, stronger benefits sanctions, and a living wage rise all command strong support, and even the controversial decision to scrap HS2 is supported by more than those who oppose it.

But the problem facing the Conservatives is not a policy one. 2019 Conservative voters who no longer intend to vote the same say they have abandoned the party because of both a lack of trust and a chaotic and ineffectual approach to governing. Factors like policy specifics and Rishi Sunak's leadership take a back seat as the party grapples with deeper, more fundamental trust and credibility issues.

Compounding their woes, Sunak's footing on key issues like healthcare, the economy, cost of living, and immigration – central themes of his five pledges – looks very shaky, with most voters critical of the Conservatives' performance.

What's more, Sunak's popularity is waning. He now lags behind Starmer in the "best Prime Minister" stakes, a metric he led on when he became leader last year.

So, with more voters telling us they want an election sooner rather than later, it is clear that many voters are now looking for an opportunity to punish the incumbent at the ballot box.”

An article by The i on Conservative Party Conference and voting intention can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

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