BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and attitudes toward the two-child benefit cap.

  • Labour lead by 17 points with 44% saying that they would vote for Labour compared to 27% saying that they would vote Conservative
  • Just two thirds (64%) of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 General Election say that they would do so again.
  • Sunak’s net satisfaction is the lowest we have recorded. 23% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister (cf. 31% in November / early December), and 51% are dissatisfied (cf. 34% in November / early December), giving the PM a net satisfaction rating of -28. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has a net-satisfaction score of -4.
  • This wave had the highest share of the vote that we have ever recorded for the Liberal Democrats (14%).
  • Despite public criticism of Starmer for u-turning on the two-child benefit cap, more of the public support the cap (49%) than oppose it (21%). However, 1 in 5 (20%) have no view on the cap and 10% don’t know whether they support or oppose it.
  • Those who voted Conservative in 2019 are much more likely to support (66%) than oppose the cap (10%). While less likely to so, those who voted Labour in 2019 are also more likely to support the cap than oppose it (39% vs 32 %).

UK Politics

“With two recent by-election losses and a large Labour poll lead, things are not looking good for Rishi Sunak. The Tories trail Labour by 17 points in our poll this week, enough for a 1997 landslide majority if repeated at an election.

Broadly speaking, the by-election results and the current polling are in tune with each other and send a consistent message; the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble. While Sunak will have expected it to take time to recover, the fact that we are already more than halfway through 2023 and there are no meaningful signs of any substantial recovery is ominous for the Prime Minister.

For a politician who used to be much more popular than his party, the Conservative’s position looks especially weak given his favourability has now fallen to our lowest-recorded level. While his opposite number Kier Starmer is hardly a hit with voters, he attracts better ratings simply because fewer are actively dissatisfied with his performance.

Meanwhile, hot off their by-election victory, there are further signs of optimism for the Liberal Democrats. While we should wait to see if a trend is maintained, this is the highest share of the vote they have seen our polling series for The i began in June 2022.”

Two-child benefit cap

“Both polling and policy indicate that the Labour party will be preparing for government, especially in light of the Labour ‘controversial’ decision to abandon its pledge to reverse the two-child benefit cap.

Yet the controversy has not been reflected in our polling with the wider public. More support (49%) than oppose (21%) the two-child benefit cap. Greater support for the cap can also be seen among 2019 Labour voters (39% vs 32%).

Perhaps more importantly for Starmer, support for the cap is much higher among 2019 Conservative voters (66%) who he will be looking to appeal as we get closer a general election.”

An article by The i on voting intention can be found here 

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

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