BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and Ukraine, a year on from the initial invasion:

  • Labour lead by 17 points, the same margin as in January, with 46% saying that they would vote for Labour compared to 29% saying that they would vote Conservative
  • Only 53% of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 General Election say that they would do so again.
  • Just 25% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister (cf. 31% in November / early December), and 45% are dissatisfied (cf. 34% in November / early December), giving the PM a net satisfaction rating of -20. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has a net-satisfaction score of +3.
  • Regarding the levels of the support which the UK is providing to Ukraine for its defence against the Russian invasion, 45% think that they are giving the right amount of support, with 18% believing that they are giving too much support
  • When asked if the UK should continue to support Ukraine, half (49%) agreed that they should do so, even if it prolonged the war
  • 42% believe that the UK should continue to support Ukraine even if this has a negative impact on the UK economy
  • Rishi Sunak has a +7% net rating for his approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine (26% believe it has been good, while 19% say it has been poor). However, this is slightly below his former boss, Boris Johnson, who has a net rating of +9%.

UK Politics

‘Labour continue to sit pretty with their commanding 17-point lead over the Conservatives. Though, this polling was conducted prior to their release of their “5 Missions” for the country, so there could potentially be some uplift as a result that. Personally, Keir Starmer continues to tread water with a net satisfaction rating of +3 – though this doesn’t look too bad when compared with the state of things on the other side of the aisle.

There are few crumbs of comfort for the Conservatives. The aforementioned 17-point gap to Labour, a -20 net satisfaction rating for Rishi Sunak, trailing to Labour on issues like crime, the economy, and immigration (7-points behind on all three) where they are traditionally strong, all of which have either not changed since last month or are getting worse. One area where they are outperforming Labour (just) is on their approach to the war in Ukraine (6-points ahead) – that’s the crumb.’

Ukraine

‘As the world observes the first anniversary of the Russian invasion, public support for the UK’s continued backing of Ukraine is yet to waver. 2 in 5 believe the UK is doing just about enough to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, with 1 in 4 saying we are doing too little – essentially unchanged when compared to August last year.

The public is at the tail end of a winter where rising energy bills have had a significant impact on household bills – an issue fuelled in no small part by the Ukraine war. But the willingness to support Ukraine going forward remains high even in the context of further impacts at home. More say that the UK should continue to support Ukraine even if it prolongs the war or damages the UK economy than say the opposite.

However, readers should not ignore the not-trivial minority – approximately one in five Britons – that disagree with these sentiments or who say the UK is giving too much support. As the war enters its second year, it is still possible that opposition or discontent with the ongoing effects could start to grow, especially if inflation continues to run high.

Politically, the ongoing war in Ukraine is now the only issue where the Conservatives have any sort of lead in terms of being the best to handle the issue, although even here their lead over Labour is relatively minor.

A cynic might highlight Starmer’s recent visit to meet President Zelensky as an attempt to address this one small electoral weakness. With the public generally supportive of the Government’s stance, the Labour party will be keen to continue to neutralise this and the wider issue of security and defence ahead of the next election. Doing so will help reassure voters that this will be one area of continuity between the current Conservative administration and a future Labour government. ’An article by The i on voting intention and Ukraine, a year on, can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

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