BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention and people’s attitudes towards rejoining the EU.
The results show:

  • Labour lead by 17 points, with 46% saying that they would vote for Labour compared to 29% saying that they would vote Conservative.
  • Sunak’s net satisfaction rating falls substantially from -3 in early December to -23 in JanuaryStarmer’s score also declines this wave, but the drop is not nearly as notable and the Labour leader remains in net-positive territory (+4 cf. +8).
  • Those who backed the Conservatives in 2019 would rather Boris Johnson as PM over Rishi Sunak. 49% want to see Johnson return, with only 37% preferring Sunak. But Sunak is preferred by voters of other parties.
  • 64% of people have seen their living standards decline within the last year through the worsening of their household finances, with 58% saying that they have worse finances than they did during lockdown. Only 13% say that their financial situation has improved since this period.
  • The public generally believe rejoining the EU would have a positive impact on the UK in most areas including the UK economy. Immigration is the only issue where more say the impact would be negative than positive.

‘With Labour continuing to hold a 17%-point lead over the Conservatives, the small polling recovery under Sunak in the early weeks after succeeding Liz Truss as Prime Minister has well and truly stalled. Labour’s lead still gives them enough for a seismic victory if repeated at an election.

Another unfortunate development for the Prime Minister is that he can no longer rely on his stronger personal ratings to reinforce his position.  With the NHS in crisis and his leadership criticised on several fronts, the public are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with how Sunak is performing as Prime Minister. It wasn’t much of a political honeymoon, but it’s certainly over now anyway.

Sunak’s chances of an against-the-odds win at the next election rest on people feeling that he has tamed the economic storm and that both the economy and their personal finances are starting to look healthier. But our polling shows just how daunting a task this is. Around 2 in 3 say they feel worse off than they did 12 months ago, the highest figure we’ve recorded since we started tracking this measure.

And very few are optimistic about a recovery. Just 1 in 7 say they expect either their own finances or the economy to improve over the next 12 months. Arguably this gives the Sunak government some hope simply because expectations are just so low, but there is no evidence yet that voters will be willing to give Conservatives the benefit of the doubt in anything like the numbers they are going to need.

An article by The i on voting intention can be found here.

An article by The i on Brexit can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.


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