BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and the upcoming General Election.

Last week, Reform was tied with the Conservatives, but their vote share has since subsided. This is a glimmer of hope for the Conservatives as the Reform surge appears to have stalled – this could possibly be a sign that Reform voters are thinking tactically and going back to the Conservatives to try and stop Labour. However, the overall picture for Sunak remains extremely bleak.

The Lib Dem vote share is holding strong, and the public’s view of their campaign performance has improved. Meanwhile, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is at its highest point we’ve recorded in the campaign. This leaves little doubt that the Conservatives are in a fight to avoid a near wipeout next week.

At the seat level, Labour’s victory margin suggests a landslide, but the exact size is unpredictable. With this rate of shift, the margins between Conservatives holding on in many seats is very marginal and small shifts could significantly impact the results. Additionally, 15% of those polled told us they are still undecided. If they shift significantly in one direction, it could impact on the final party composition in parliament.

Our final voting intention poll for the General Election will be released next week.

An article by The i on voting intention can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

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