BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and the upcoming General Election.

Britain seems to be on the verge of an election that could reshape the political landscape in ways that were still hard to imagine just a few weeks ago.

Sunak called the election, hoping to squeeze the Reform vote, make up some ground on Labour and assure Tory-leaning ‘don’t knows’ that they should support his party. In many respects, the exact opposite has happened. With just two weeks to go, our poll shows the gap between Conservatives and Labour has continued to grow, with Reform now tied with the Conservatives.

Remarkably, only two in four of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say they will do so again. Farage’s return has turbo-charged the Reform campaign, and most voters who the Conservatives have lost since 2019 say they are unlikely to switch back before July 4th.

If this result was repeated in two weeks, UK politics is on course for an earth-shattering result, marking the worst result for the Conservatives ever and potentially threatening their status as the main opposition party. Labour could end up with a seismic majority with nearly 500 seats in the House of Commons, with the Conservatives reduced to fewer than 100, perhaps not much higher than 50.

An article by The i on voting intention can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

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