BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and who would make the best Prime Minister.

At half-time of the campaign (i.e. week three) our polling shows no signs of the Conservatives being able to narrow the gap to Labour. Instead, they continue to languish in the territory of their worst ever electoral performance, and a sub-100 seat return if these numbers are replicated on July 4th. Of course, there is still time for them to improve that, but it appears that they have openly shifted their strategy to damage limitation. Grant Shapps was heard warning of a Labour supermajority and some local Conservative Associations have been posting leaflets warning voters that they could slip into third place in that constituency.

The Conservatives might see a crumb of comfort in that, while the public viewed Sunak’s departure from the D-Day tributes in a very dim light, it does not appear to have impacted them in the polls. However, what remains to be seen is how much harder it will make the job of convincing Reform, Red Wall and other previous Conservative voters to come to back to the Party.

For their part, Reform’s rise in the aftermath of Farage’s announcement has not sustained into a second week. Perhaps with the Labour lead being so substantial, and the signs of a pivot in Tory strategy, the main battle ground for the remainder of the election could be between Reform and the Conservatives.

An article by The i on voting intention can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

Share this article: