BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and Parties Performance in the General Election Campaign so far.

With Farage’s return to the political fray, the Conservative’s electoral prospects look truly dire.

If our result were repeated on July 4th, this would likely result in the Conservatives worst election result in their history, reducing them to fewer than 100 seats. This would represent a political earthquake, drastically reshaping the political landscape and forcing the Conservatives to fight for their very survival.

Our analysis also indicates that squeezing the Reform vote to a meaningful extent will be challenging for Sunak. Voters shifting to reform include many economically left-wing but anti-immigration voters. Many of these voters backed the Tories in 2019 but our results show Sunak’s personal ratings are woeful in this group, half that of Farage.

Labour already had the Tories on the ropes, but Farage’s Reform looks primed to deliver a knockout blow.

An article by The i on voting intention can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

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