BMG Research has undertaken exclusive polling for The i newspaper. The polling covers topics including vote intention, leader satisfaction and attitudes toward party policy in light of the UK General Election.

There has been much fanfare in the first week of the election campaign, but our polling shows little evidence of it making any difference in how the public intends to vote on July 4th.

Traditionally we see the polls narrowing throughout an election campaign, but one week in Labour holds a 16%-point lead, the same as in our last poll conducted in late April. This sizeable lead will translate into a landslide victory for Labour if these numbers hold until July 4th. Fundamentally, at least for now, the voting intentions figures reflect the public’s desire for change in this election.

We also polled a straightforward question to capture the choice facing the country: do people want to change or stick to the current plan? More than half of the British public want a fresh approach, double the number who prefer to stick to the current plan. Labour’s strategy – putting the change message front and centre of their campaign – appears to capture the moment.

The shift in support for Reform UK is small and within the margin of error, but their vote share is down by a few points. This is something to watch as the campaign develops, especially since the Tory strategy appears to be a defensive one, aiming to win back some of their core voters.

While the campaign appears to have had little impact thus far, there is still plenty of scope for things to change. In 2017 the polls were fairly steady in the first week of the campaign before Labour mounted a significant comeback. But as it stands, the chances of Rishi Sunak preventing Keir Starmer from entering Downing Street after this election remain extremely unlikely.

A full report on the results in collaboration with Copper Consultancy can be found here.

An article by The i on voting intention and clarity on policy can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

As a sample of the population was interviewed, the results are subject to a margin of error around various estimates. This means that, given the random nature of the sampling process, we can be confident that the actual result lies somewhere within the margin of error. For example, with a sample of 1,000 we can be 95% certain that the actual value will fall 3% either side of the result. For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

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