BMG’s exclusive Scottish Parliament election voting intention poll for The Herald on Sunday continues to shows SNP chances of a majority on a Kinfe-edge.
Constituency vote (changes vs 16-19 Mar):
SNP – 49% (+1)
Lab – 21% (+1)
Con – 19% (-2)
Lib Dem – 9% (+1)
Regional list (changes vs 16-19 Mar):
SNP – 37% (-5)
Con – 22% (nc)
Lab – 17% (nc)
Green – 9% (+1)
Lib Dem – 8% (nc)
Alba – (4% (+4)
Analysis from Robert Struthers, BMG’s head of polling:
There is no question that the SNP will be returned as the largest party in Holyrood next week, but their prospect of a majority remains on a knife-edge.
With little movement since our last poll in mid-March, there is no real evidence that any party has gathered notable momentum ahead of voters casting their ballots next week.
Using a uniform seat calculator – a general guide of estimating how votes might translate into seats – our numbers suggest that the SNP could win a small majority of seven, thanks to a close to clean sweep of constituencies.
The Greens look to be on course for their strongest ever election showing, picking up 9 percent on the regional list. The strength of their showing means there is little doubt about the prospect of a pro-independence majority, even if the SNP don’t make it over the line themselves.
The success of Alex Salmond’s Alba Party will also come down to very close margins. At 4 percent, it looks like it will be a struggle for Alba to win representation at Holyrood, although this may be enough at a regional level to pick up a seat or two.
The margin of error – a feature of all polls – means there is the possibility that Alba could achieve closer to 6 percent, the number required for a more widespread electoral breakthrough.
Anas Sarwar’s personal ratings have improved over the course of the campaign, but this does not appear to have translated into extra votes for Labour. A poorer showing on the regional list means Labour still looks likely to finish behind the Conservatives in terms of numbers of seats, despite Conservative leader Douglas Ross seeing his popularity decline.
An article by The Scottish Herald about these figures can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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Andrew Price – Senior Research Executive