Today, we have released our major new report on the shape of the voter landscape, The Broken Coalition.This report details our latest insights into voting intention across Britain through the scope of our Value & Identity Clans of Great Britain.

The analysis uses extensive data of tens of thousands of voters dating back to 2017 to build a unique and comprehensive understanding of how key voter segments have shifted their allegiances over a turbulent period in British politics.

An advanced statistical model classifies voters into one of ten groups in what we call “values and identity clans” based on attitudinal data.

BMG Head of Public Perceptions, Robert Struthers said:

“The report provides a long-awaited follow-up to our previous study of British voters’ values, focussing on the state of play at the beginning of the 2024 election campaign and showing how they have evolved since the 2019 election.

Our report has one key central message: Boris Johnson’s once commanding coalition of diverse voter groups, or “clans”, is now significantly fractured.

With Nigel Farage re-entering the fray, Reform could destroy this coalition altogether, consigning the Conservatives to a defeat of historic proportions.”

The full report is available to read here.

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