BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll on behalf of The Independent sees a small increase in the Conservative Party lead over the Labour Party.

The poll was conducted between 3rd to 6th December and surveyed 1,542 GB adults.

CON: 41% (+2)
LAB: 32% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BREX: 4% (-)
Chgs. w/ 1 Dec.

Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, said:

Our polling last week showed the gap between Labour and Conservatives narrowing, with the key question being whether Corbyn could continue the squeeze on the Liberal Democrat vote and the other parties on the remain side of the equation. This week our polling suggests – as do figures of other pollsters – that Labour have stalled on this front.

Now with four days left before polling day, there is little time for Labour to shift the dial. Part of their problem is that they have been unable to win back the support of those who reported voting Labour in 2017 but have since switched to the Conservatives. Before the campaign began, our polling in October showed around one in ten voters – mainly those who backed Leave in 2016 – saying they had switched to the Conservatives. As the campaign enters into its final week, there has been no change to this figure.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.

Electoral Registration Adjustment: Factors have been applied to the Westminster Vote figures using to account rates of electoral registration among key groups. Factors were derived from a survey question that asked respondents whether or not they are registered to vote. The results were then segmented by age and tenure (two variables that were identified by the Electoral Commission report “Accuracy & Completeness of Electoral Registers 2016” as key discriminators of registration completeness). Readers should note that, since the electoral registration deadline for the upcoming General Election is not until the 26th of November 2019, it is possible that the profile of the eligible to vote population will change in the coming weeks as more people register to vote. Our electoral registration factors have been designed to be dynamic up to this point, adjusting to reflect reported levels of registration as ascertained by our polling, before they are eventually finalised once the deadline has passed.

Constituencies and candidates: Constituency level information was used to ensure that respondents were only able to select from those parties/candidates confirmed as standing in their constituency at the 2019 General Election.

An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk
@BMGResearch
0121 333 6006

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