The Brexit debate has been continuing for over three years now, with the British public continuing to be divided in opinion. With continuing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, BMG’s exclusive poll for the Independent has asked the public about the impact of Brexit on their personal lives.

The survey, which was conducted between 1st-4th October 2019, asked 1,514 Brits aged 18+ what they thought would happen if the UK left the EU without a deal and whether they have had heated arguments with friends or family members about Brexit.

Whilst the majority of Remain voters believe a No Deal Brexit would likely lead to transport disruption and job losses, most of those who voted leave think this would be unlikely to happen.

Respondents were asked whether they thought the following events were likely to happen if the UK left the EU without a deal:

  • Food shortages
  • Shortage of medicines
  • Transport disruption
  • Job losses
  • A recession
  • Civil unrest (i.e. unlawful protests, riots or violence)

Whilst an initial glance of the findings shows that around half of respondents felt that transport disruptions (54%), job losses (52%) or a recession (51%) were likely to occur if the UK left on a No Deal Brexit, the difference between Leave voters and Remain voters is stark.

For example, nearly three quarters (74%) of Remain voters felt that it was likely that leaving on No Deal would lead to job losses, with less than one in five (18%) saying it was unlikely. In contrast, nearly two thirds (64%) of Leave voters felt that job losses were not likely to happen in the event of a No Deal Brexit, whilst 27% felt that it was likely.

There are also significant differences between respondents from different age groups, with younger respondents on average more likely to think these events would happen, especially compared to older respondents. Those aged between 18 and 24 (67%) and 25 and 34 (61%) were significantly more likely to state that job losses were very likely or fairly likely; this is significantly higher than the national average which stands at 52%. Conversely, just 38% of those aged 65+ think this is likely, with over half (52%) stating that job losses are not likely to occur in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Younger respondents are more likely to have experienced heated arguments with family members, friends or strangers as a result of Brexit.

Whilst the majority of those polled stated that they had not experienced heated arguments with friends (24%) or family (22%), younger people seem significantly more likely to have experienced these types of interactions. In fact, BMG polling shows that more than two in five (42%) 18-24 year olds claim to have had a heated argument with family members due to disagreements over Brexit. On the other hand, just 15% of those aged 55+ say they have had the same experience.

Interestingly, the way in which respondents voted in the 2016 EU referendum is less of a defining factor. Whilst Leave voters were significantly less likely to have had a heated argument with a family member due to disagreements over Brexit (18%), the proportion of Remain voters (26%) or those who did not vote in the 2016 EU referendum (21%) who have had such arguments is not significantly more than the total average (22%).

An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.


0121 333 6006

Pav Dhaliwal – Junior Researcher

Andrew Price – Research Executive


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