BMG’s EU Referendum voting intention polling results for May and June show Remain’s lead over Leave declining.

Respondents were asked: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” (identical to the question that appeared on the ballot paper for the 2016 EU referendum).

Our numbers for May continued to show a wide margin. 52% of respondents thought the UK should stay in the EU, compared with 41% who said that it should leave, with 7% either stating either don’t know or prefer not to say. After factoring in our squeeze question (which asks which way voters are leaning), the headline figures for May (with respondents who say don’t know and refusals removed) were Remain on 56% and Leave on 44%.

However, the 11% margin in May narrows to just 4% in June, with the proportion opting for Remain dropping by 4 percentage points to 48%, with the numbers stating Leave increasing by 3 percentage points to 44%.

The headline figure for June, accounting for our squeeze question and with don’t knows and refusals removed, is 52% for Remain and 48% for Leave.

Commenting on the results, Robert Struthers, Head of Polling at BMG Research, said:

“At just 4 percentage points, this is the narrowest margin we have seen between Remain and Leave since September of last year, where the difference was also 4 percentage points.

In our first poll measuring support for Brexit since the European Parliamentary elections, it is possible that attitudes have shifted slightly following the success of the Brexit party. That said, we should always be cautious in placing too much emphasis on one single poll and, whilst Remain has now consistently recorded leads over Leave for more than 18 months, it is worth noting that this lead has been fairly volatile.

It will, therefore, be interesting to see if June represents the starting point from which the race appears to have tightened, or whether this is something of a blip, with the margin widening again as it has done so previously.”

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

Andrew Price – Research Executive

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