As the UK prepares to leave the EU at the end of January, BMG’s EU Referendum voting intention polling results for January shows Remain retain its lead over Leave, although the gap narrowed from 7 percentage points in December, to 4 in our current poll. The margin of error – a feature of any poll – means either side could actually be ahead.

Respondents were asked: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” (identical to the question that appeared on the ballot paper for the 2016 EU referendum).

The January poll continues to show a narrow margin. 49% of respondents thought the UK should stay in the EU, a decline of 3 percentage points from December (49%). Overall, 45% said that the UK should leave, an increase of 1 percentage point on last month. A further 6% answered either don’t know or prefer not to say.

After factoring in our squeeze question (which asks which way voters are leaning), the headline figures for January (with respondents who say don’t know and refusals removed) is 52% for Remain and 48% for Leave.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.


0121 333 6006

Paul Bedford – Research Executive

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