BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll on behalf of The Independent sees a 13-point Conservative lead over the Labour Party.

The poll was conducted between 19th to 21st November and surveyed 1,663 GB adults.

CON: 41% (+4)
LAB: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)
BREX: 3% (-6)
Chgs. w/ 15 Nov.

Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, said:

“Observers should avoid viewing this poll as providing any evidence of a post-debate bounce for Boris Johnson. Whilst our numbers show the Conservatives opening up a considerable gap over the Labour Party, the increase in the Conservative lead can be attributed to the Brexit Party’s decision not to stand in more than half of seats in Great Britain, including all seats won by the Conservatives in 2017.

Now that final candidate lists have been confirmed, the poll was designed to reflect what voters will see when they scan their ballot papers on polling day, with respondents to our survey only able to select from those candidates confirmed as standing in their area on the 12th of December. The result is a six-point decline in the Brexit Party vote share from our polling last week, and a four-point bump for the Conservatives.

The key battlegrounds at this election are the Labour held marginals, many of which – though importantly not all –  are unaffected by the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down. Therefore, much of this increase is likely a reflection of the Conservatives simply piling up more votes in seats they would have already won, and perhaps only making the difference in defending a handful of their own marginal constituencies.

Indeed, in terms of seats won rather than overall share of the vote, the Brexit Party’s last minute decision not to stand in some additional Labour held marginals in England – seats such as Dudley North, Canterbury, and Bristol North West – could have at least as much impact as their decision not to stand in the 317 seats the Conservative won in 2017.”

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results and a number of other questions released by the Independent can be found here.

Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.

Electoral Registration Adjustment: Factors have been applied to the Westminster Vote figures using to account rates of electoral registration among key groups. Factors were derived from a survey question that asked respondents whether or not they are registered to vote. The results were then segmented by age and tenure (two variables that were identified by the Electoral Commission report “Accuracy & Completeness of Electoral Registers 2016” as key discriminators of registration completeness). Readers should note that, since the electoral registration deadline for the upcoming General Election is not until the 26th of November 2019, it is possible that the profile of the eligible to vote population will change in the coming weeks as more people register to vote. Our electoral registration factors have been designed to be dynamic up to this point, adjusting to reflect reported levels of registration as ascertained by our polling, before they are eventually finalised once the deadline has passed.

Constituencies and candidates: Constituency level information was used to ensure that respondents were only able to select from those parties/candidates confirmed as standing in their constituency at the 2019 General Election.

An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.

Another article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
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