BMG’s latest Westminster voting intention poll on behalf of The Independent sees the Labour party narrow the gap over the Conservatives.
The poll was conducted between 27th to 29th November and surveyed 1,630 GB adults.
CON: 39% (-2)
LAB: 33% (+5)
LDEM: 13% (-5)
GRN: 5% (-)
BREX: 4% (+1)
Chgs. w/ 22 Nov.
Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, said:
“With less than two weeks until polling day, our latest vote intention numbers show Labour starting to close the gap.
The shifts we have witnessed in our headline voting intention figures take the Conservative lead from a likely majority into possible hung parliament territory. And while the margin of error – a feature of all polls – means this shift may not be as large as the headline suggests, it does add weight to other existing polling evidence which shows the Labour Party starting to build momentum.
What the Labour Party has done successfully – as they did in 2017 – is win back the support of those who had previously backed Labour but have since switched to supporting another party or declared themselves undecided. In our polling last week, 67 percent of those that reported voting Labour in 2017 said they intended to back Mr Corbyn this time around. The figure from this week’s poll stands at 73 percent.
Given the Conservative Party simply has less room for growth electorally, the key question for the remainder of the campaign is the extent to which Labour can continue to squeeze the Liberal Democrat and Green vote, as well win the backing of for those who are as yet undecided.
Indeed, since our first poll of the campaign, the share of 2017 Labour voters who reported defecting to the Liberal Democrats and Greens has fallen by seven percentage points. If this trend continues, this election could be much closer than it looked just a matter of weeks ago.”
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.
Electoral Registration Adjustment: Factors have been applied to the Westminster Vote figures using to account rates of electoral registration among key groups. Factors were derived from a survey question that asked respondents whether or not they are registered to vote. The results were then segmented by age and tenure (two variables that were identified by the Electoral Commission report “Accuracy & Completeness of Electoral Registers 2016” as key discriminators of registration completeness). Readers should note that, since the electoral registration deadline for the upcoming General Election is not until the 26th of November 2019, it is possible that the profile of the eligible to vote population will change in the coming weeks as more people register to vote. Our electoral registration factors have been designed to be dynamic up to this point, adjusting to reflect reported levels of registration as ascertained by our polling, before they are eventually finalised once the deadline has passed.
Constituencies and candidates: Constituency level information was used to ensure that respondents were only able to select from those parties/candidates confirmed as standing in their constituency at the 2019 General Election.
An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.