BMG’s final Westminster voting intention poll on behalf of The Independent sees no change in voting intention for either the Conservatives or Labour Party from our figures released at the end of last week.
The poll was conducted between 6th to 11th December and surveyed 1,660 GB adults.
CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)
Chgs. w/ 6 Dec.
Commenting on the results, BMG’s Head of Polling Robert Struthers said:
“As polling day nears, we’ve seen little change to our vote intention results compared to our figures released at the end of last week.
A nine-point gap may appear comfortable for the Conservatives, but it is important to note that the margin or error around the estimates means that a hung parliament is not entirely out of the question. For instance, a slightly higher Labour vote share and a slightly lower Conservative share – well within the margin of error – would reduce the gap to in the region of six points, a figure which would raise the possibility of a hung parliament. So whilst a Conservative majority looks like the most likely outcome, it is by no means a certainty.
Reflecting on the campaign, it is clear that whilst Labour have managed to increase their support at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, this increase has been matched by the Conservatives taking votes from the Brexit Party. Given that the Conservatives have been helped by the Brexit Party’s decision to stand down in more than half of seats, you could argue that Labour’s so-called squeeze has been more hard earned. However, the net effect – in terms of the share of the vote at least – has been roughly equal.
If the Conservatives are to win a majority tomorrow, this will largely be because Labour appears to have failed to win back the support of those who voted for them in 2017 but were telling pollsters at the outset of the campaign that they were intending to switch to the Conservatives. Our final pre-election poll shows that around one in ten 2017 Labour voters – most of which backed Leave in 2016 – say they intend to back Boris Johnson this time around, a figure which is actually slightly higher than we saw at the outset of the campaign.”
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
Readers should keep in mind that the historical record of polling shows that there is a 9 in 10 chance that the actual share lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll.
Electoral Registration Adjustment: Factors have been applied to the Westminster Vote figures using to account rates of electoral registration among key groups. Factors were derived from a survey question that asked respondents whether or not they are registered to vote. The results were then segmented by age and tenure (two variables that were identified by the Electoral Commission report “Accuracy & Completeness of Electoral Registers 2016” as key discriminators of registration completeness).
Constituencies and candidates:Constituency level information was used to ensure that respondents were only able to select from those parties/candidates confirmed as standing in their constituency at the 2019 General Election.
An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.