BMG’s exclusive poll for the Herald suggests the SNP’s support in Scotland is slightly down on a year ago. At a Westminster level, the poll suggests 42% would vote for the SNP, down from 48% in April last year.   

Whilst the SNP remain the dominant electoral force in Scotland, Labour looks to have strengthened its position when it comes to how Scots intend to vote at a General Election. 26% of Scots say they would vote for the party, up from 20% in April last year.

However, our results continue to show a much tighter fight for second place at Holyrood, with Anas Sarwar’s party effectively neck and neck with Douglas Ross’s Conservatives in both Constituency and Regional List contests.

Meanwhile, views on Scottish independence remain very finely balanced. 53% of Scots say they would vote No in a future independence referendum, with 47% backing Yes.

Elsewhere, the exclusive poll shows:

  • Concern about the cost-of-living surges: The cost of living is now the issue Scots care about the most - 42% say it is the most important issue facing society. Just 4% said the same in April last year, representing a tenfold increase.
  • More than half of Scots “struggling’ or ‘just about managing”: 44% of Scots say they are “just about managing” financially, and a further 15% are “struggling.” Just 36% say they are “comfortable” and 3% “well off”.
  • Little financial optimism for the next 12 months: 54% say they expect to get their finances to worsen over the course of the next year. Just 17% expect they will get better. 
  • Sunak not doing nearly enough: There is little evidence that measures outlined by the Chancellor have alleviated concerns. 78% say Rishi Sunak needs to do more to tackle rising inflation and household bills, including 53% who say he needs to do much more.
  • And neither is Forbes: 63% say that Kate Forbes needs to do more, including 35% who believe she needs to do much more.
  • A comfortable majority of Scots think the PM should resign over partygate: 67% say the Prime Minister should resign over alleged parties held in Downing Street. Just 20% say he should remain in his role.

Our polling shows tentative signs of a slight dip in support for the SNP. However, it remains to be seen whether this trend will be borne out over time.

Although still comfortably the most popular political party in Scotland, if you compare results to that of one year ago, the SNP's support has fallen back somewhat. Looking at general election voting intentions, our polling suggests support has fallen back by some 6 percentage points in the space of a year, figures that might make some in the SNP a little nervous.

This poll will also put a spring in Anas Sarwar’s step, indicative of a slow but steady reversal of Labour's recent fortunes in Scotland, up around 6 points on a year ago when looking at support at a Westminster level. 

However, Labour still shows little sign of being able to mount a serious challenge to SNP dominance. They instead must settle for trying to cement their position as the best of the rest, particularly given our polling shows a much closer picture when it comes to party support at a Holyrood level.

Additional details

An article by The Scottish Herald about these figures can be found here.

Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.


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