BMG’s latest published EU Referendum voting intention figures show Leave up 4 percentage points to 45% (+4),Remain down three points to 41% (-3) and those undecided on 14% (-1 – DK/PNTS).
Latest EU Referendum tracker from BMG Research:
45%(+4) – Leave
41%(-3) – Remain
14%(-1) – Undecided (DK/PNTS)
Note: Figures in brackets are changes on results in February
Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop-down menu in the chart below.
The results show that younger people, who have a poor track record for turning out at elections and referendums, appear to be an increasingly important source of support for the Remain campaign.
Some two thirds of 18-24s (65%) are in favour of remaining in the EU, compared to just 22% in favour of leaving (13% Undecided).
Conversely, 60% of the those aged 65+, say they that will vote to leave, compared to just one third (31%) who say they will vote to remain (9% undecided).
Readers should note; when asked how likely they would be to vote in an EU Referendum if it were tomorrow; more than three quarters (76%) of those aged 65+ said they would definitely vote, whereas just 44% of 18-24s said the same.
BMG’s Research Director, Dr Michael Turner, said: “For the first time since BMG started its EU referendum tracker (in October 2015) Leave is polling ahead with a clear shift in voting intentions since February. This shift mirrors that recently seen in both phone and online polls, suggesting a clear event-driven effect.”
The clear political divide is also apparent. The gap between the parties on the issue has widened further since the beginning of our polling series as people’s decisions as to how they might vote begin to firm-up.
As previous polls have shown, Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters are clearly in favour of remaining (Labour 62% Remain, 29% Leave, 9% DK/PNTS, Liberal Democrat 77% Remain, 20% Leave, 3% DK/PNTS), whereas UKIP supporters are almost entirely in favour of leaving (1% Remain, 96% Leave, 3% DK/PNTS).
Conservative voters continue to be split down the middle with 43% in favour of Remain and 51% in favour of Leave (5% DK/PNTS).
More details and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
Fieldwork dates and methodology can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please visit our website or get in touch by email or phone.
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