BMG publishes its Westminster voting intention tracking series since February 2016 with the latest results seeing the Conservatives open up an 11-point lead over Labour, up 1 point on August.

The Liberal Democrats remain unchanged on 8%, UKIP down one point to 13% and the Greens unchanged on 5%. The SNP (part of other charted below) are also on 5%.

A Recap on BMG’s Westminster Voting Intention Polling in 2016

At the beginning of the year the Conservatives were 7 points ahead of Labour (30%) on 37%. UKIP were at 15%, Lib Dem 7%, Greens 4% whilst support for other parties was at 6%.

The Conservative lead over Labour then increased to 8 percentage points in February before declining steadily in the run up to the EU referendum. By May 2016, one month before the referendum when Tory tensions over Europe were at their highest, the party lost ground and were one percentage point behind Labour (32% Labour, 31% Conservative).

However by June, one week before the EU referendum, the Conservatives regained a modest lead on Labour, polling on 32% with Labour on 31%.

Meanwhile, in the run-up to the referendum, UKIP support grew to one fifth of voters (20%), before collapsing immediately after the referendum down to 13%, where they have broadly remained.

Since the referendum and during the Labour leadership contest, it is clear that Labour have lost ground on the Tories, and are currently polling on 28% of the vote. The Conservatives are have remained on 39% since the outcome of the referendum.

Please note: Shares may not add to 100% due to rounding.

 

Watch Out

BMG’s Westminster Voting Intention polling methodology is under review. BMG will announce the full details of the review and any changes later in the year, so please check our latest posts and updates for more information.

 

Fieldwork information and methodology can be found here.

A full breakdown of the February 2016 results can be found here.

A full breakdown of the March 2016 results can be found here.

A full breakdown of the April 2016 results can be found here.

A full breakdown of the May 2016 results can be found here.

A full breakdown of the June 2016 results can be found here.

A full breakdown of the July 2016 results can be found here.

A full breakdown of the August 2106 results can be found here.

A full breakdown of the September 2016 results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of the results from this poll, and any other results from our polling series, please visit our website or get in touch by email or phone.

@BMGResearch

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

01213336006

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