The latest BMG poll for the Herald reveals that more than two in five Scots would accept a ‘hard’ border with the rest of the UK if it meant staying in the EU.

The poll found that 43% would accept Scotland remaining in the EU even if this meant a ‘hard’ border i.e. border checkpoints between Scotland and the rest of the UK. However, 57% of Scots would prefer to be outside of the EU if that meant free trade and no borders with the rest of the UK.

 

A new divide in Scottish politics?

A closer look at the data reveals that those Scots who are in favour of EU membership ahead of free trade and movement with the rest of the UK, are disproportionately 2014 Yes voters (59%), Remain voters (55%) and voters on higher incomes (52% more than £45,000).

However, it is clear that there is only a majority who prioritise the EU trading relationship over the U.K. with a small group of Scots. 79% of those who voted Yes for independence in 2014 and who voted Remain in the referendum would rather a hard border with the rest of the UK, than lose membership of the EU which accounts for 27% of all voters.

A new divide: Clear majorities among other groups are in favour of free trade with the UK over EU membership

On the other hand, there are clear majorities within other groups who are in favour of free trade with the UK over EU membership including those aged 65+ (76%), 2014 No voters (73%), and Leave voters (84%).

Over nine in ten (91%) of those who voted No in 2014 and voted to Leave the EU would rather free borders with the UK but be outside the EU which accounts for around one fifth of all voters. However, 75% of those who voted Yes in 2014 and voted to Leave the EU would rather free trade and no borders with the UK but be outside the EU. While 64% of those who voted No in 2014 and voted to Remain in the EU would rather free borders with the UK but be outside the EU.

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop down menu below.

The poll also found that Scottish adults are torn over whether the EU or the UK is more important regarding Scottish trade and the economy.

If they had to choose, 40% said free trade with the rest of the UK is most important while 39% said the free trade with EU countries is most important. One fifth (21%) said free trade with countries other than the UK or the EU is most important.

Almost three quarters (73%) of those who voted Yes in 2014 for independence and Remain in the EU referendum said free trade with EU countries is the most important issue for Scotland to maintain whereas those who voted Yes and Leave are split between free trade with the rest of the UK (37%) and free trade with countries other than the UK or the EU (37%).

Over half (53%) of those who voted No in 2014 and Remain think free trade with the UK is the most important while 69% of Scots who voted No for independence and Leave in the referendum also think free trade with the UK is most important for Scotland to maintain.

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop down menu below.

An article based on these polling results, released by the Herald, can be found here.

Fieldwork dates and methodology can be found here.

A full breakdown of these results can be found here.

For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

@BMGResearch

0121 333 6006

Untitled2  Lauren Harris – Senior Research Executive

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