BMG’s recent poll for the Independent shows that the public remain close to evenly split on the issue of Britain’s EU membership, on this occasion with Remain slightly ahead.
Conducted between the 12th and 15th September, the representative survey of 1,447 GB adults shows a close race, with Remain on 52% and Leave on 48%, the exact inverse of last year’s referendum result.
Whilst the Remain lead may be eye-catching, as is the case with all polls that show one side narrowly “out-in-front”, at this stage readers should treat the results with caution. The narrow Remain lead is within the poll’s margin of error, +/- 2.5 percentage points, where we can be confident that that the actual results falls. This means that, as for most polling results published at this time, both sides are effectively “neck and neck”. Indeed, statistically speaking it is entirely possible, from these results, that Leave is slightly ahead.
The poll also shows little evidence of “buyer’s remorse” among Leave supporters. 96% of those that reported voting Leave in 2016, would still vote for the UK’s EU exit. Likewise, 95% of those who voted to Remain, still support the UK staying inside the EU.
When we examine the results from BMG’s EU Referendum tracker over an extended period of time, we can see the relative stability of public attitudes towards the EU (see below). The results below show that since the referendum last year, neither side has recorded a greater than four percentage point lead.
Readers should also note that the poll was conducted on BMG’s Online Monthly Tracker, which shares the same methodology as our online polling that consistently reported the Leave vote share ahead in the run-up to the EU referendum, and correctly called the outcome.
This approach now has the added benefit of an additional weighting variable; i.e. how respondents voted, if at all, at the EU Referendum. This is the only major change to the online approach since. Although at the time BMG favoured the telephone poll, having published both the phone and the online poll, which can be found here (see table 9 on page 89), BMG Research have continued to use the online methodology since the referendum in order to ensure that the results are comparable with an approach that accurately reported the final result.
An article based on these polling results, released by the Independent, can be found here.
Methodology, fieldwork dates, and a full breakdown of these results can be found here.
For a more detailed breakdown of results from this poll, or any other results from our polling series, please get in touch by email or phone.
0121 333 6006
Dr Michael Turner – Research Director
Robert Struthers – Senior Research Executive