An exclusive BMG poll commissioned by the Evening Standard in the midst of the Prime Ministers talks in Brussels last week, found that a clear majority of UK adults do not trust European officials to implement the Prime Minister’s deal in full after the EU referendum on June 23rd 2016.

Also in the release was BMG’s latest published EU Referendum voting intention figures, which show Leave on 41% (-1), Remain on 44% (nc) and those undecided on 15% (+1 – DK/PNTS).

The clear political divide persists, with Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters most in favour of remaining a member (Labour 64% remain, 26% leave,10% DK/PNTS, Liberal Democrat 78% remain, 16% leave, 7% DK/PNTS). UKIP supporters are most in favour of leaving, whilst Conservatives continue to be split on the issue (Conservative 39% remain, 51% leave, 10% DK/PNTS, UKIP 9% remain, 87% leave, 4% DK/PNTS).

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop-down menu in the chart below.

Around one third of UK adults (36%) revealed their current voting intention for the forthcoming referendum has been influenced, to some degree, by the deal negotiated by David Cameron. A closer look at the data reveals half of Conservative voters (50%) said that their decision has been influenced, compared to just 36% of Lib Dems and 29% of Labour voters.

Although David Cameron has responded to critics by saying the agreement is “legally binding”, the results of our poll revealed that:

  • Just 22% of the public trust the other EU leaders to stick to the deal and change European treaties to make it watertight. 57% say they do not trust the leaders (21% don’t know).
  • Just 17% trust the European Commission to come up with detailed proposals after the referendum is over that delivers all the agreement in full. More than three times as many (56%) say they do not trust the Commission to match the deal in full and 27% don’t know.
  • And only 15% trust the European Parliament to pass legislation that implements the deal without watering it down. 60% do not trust European Parliament not to dilute Britain’s concessions and 26% don’t know.

Londoners and younger adults are more likely to trust that EU leaders will stick to the deal, deliver the agreement in full and trust legislation will be passed without watering it down. But they are still outnumbered by a factor of more than two to one by those who think otherwise.

Few voters think David Cameron’s reforms will actually succeed in meeting his key objectives of reducing immigration, protecting the City of London, cutting red tape on business and restoring more sovereignty to the British Parliament.

Londoners are most supportive of the reforms negotiated by Cameron to protect the city. One third (33%) of Londoners polled said that they felt Cameron’s reforms would protect the capital as a financial centre and furthermore, around a third (35%) of Londoners also said that they felt the reforms would cut more EU regulatory ‘red tape’ for British businesses more widely.

When asked if David Cameron had obtained a ‘good deal’ in his negotiations, only 13% thought it was a ‘good deal for the country’, 42% thought it was a ‘poor deal’ while 45% said they don’t know perhaps highlighting a lack of understanding amongst the public of what this deal actually means for Britain. Interestingly, over half of those intending to vote Remain (51%) said they don’t know if David Cameron obtained a ‘good deal’.

Our Research Director, Dr Michael Turner, said “Perhaps unsurprisingly, nearly all Leave supporters (86%) feel that European leaders will renege on the deal after the vote has taken place. However, Remain supporters appear to be less firm in their views on this issue. Although most (43%) think that EU leaders will stick to the deal, a sizeable minority (34%) feel that they won’t. Interestingly, a majority (50%) of those who are yet to make up their mind about how they will vote in June, the crucial undecided’s, say they don’t think EU leaders will stick to the deal, suggesting that this group shares similar concerns to those who are intending to vote leave.

It should also be noted that differential turnout will be an important factor in deciding the referendum, so understanding the views of key groups that are likely and unlikely to turn out will be critical to understand how the result may settle, and how to motivate others to turn out also. A clear majority (54%) of those who said they will definitely vote at the EU referendum said that they don’t think the reforms negotiated will actually reduce overall migration from the EU to the UK. In addition, more than two thirds (68%) of definite voters think that the European parliament will water down any deal made – not delivering all of it.”

Readers can interrogate the data for themselves by toggling with the drop-down menu in the chart below to see the differences between groups that are likely and unlikely to turn out.

An article based on these polling results, released by the Evening Standard, can be found here.

Data tables containing a breakdown of the results can be found here.

For further details about this poll, and any other results from our polling series, please feel free to get in touch by email or phone.

 

Lauren Harris – Research Executive

@laurenmharris_

@BMGResearch

polling@bmgresearch.co.uk

0121 333 6006